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Twin Cities Housing Forecast: It's November in June!


(image courtesy MAAR)

The anemic Twin Cities Pending Home Sales figures posted the last 5 weeks are both expected as well as disappointing.  While us REALTORS all knew that things post-tax-credit would be slower, I for one am rested and ready to really get back at it.  If we compare pending home sales since the expiration of the tax credit with historical sales for the same period, we find that the most recent weeks are more typical of November than June.  That chill on sales activity is certainly being felt.  I have heard stories from agents of some houses not getting a single showing for more than a month and sellers getting nervous and frustrated.

The cold front that has come through the Twin Cities housing market has certainly been noticed by sellers and agents alike, and by buyers too.  The buyers I have looking for houses today are finding better selection and less competition, leading to a more relaxed home search and buyers confident that they will find the right home for them… eventually.  This buyer relaxation directly correlates to a lack of urgency though, and that leaves many sellers barely on this side of sanity as they wait for a buyer to approach them with an offer.

While it may be cool in the Twin Cities housing market right now, the recent dramatic change in pending sales is still nothing compared to what we see in our weather and isn’t even close to record lows.  If I were to take the job of a housing market weatherman, I would predict that the Twin Cities housing market this summer will be cooler than normal with both some weeks of sunshine and rising www.s (as sales start to rebound) and some occasional stormy clouds (more foreclosures, short sales) as well.  Fall’s weather is going to be dependent on the housing market equivalent of El Nino – if we see unemployment and consumer confidence improve we may see more warmth in the market.  However, if we do not see improvement in the economy we may be in for another cold and long winter.

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6 comments
Carla
Carla

I'm thinking about buying a home. Is now a good time to buy a house or should I start my search in the fall? I'm looking to find a great deal for me and my husband--we're about to move to the Twin Cities! I just wonder if holding out is a wise choice... or even if it'll benefit us at all. We're a young couple and want to be smart with our decision. After all, this is our home...

Apple
Apple

Great post title, "Twin Cities Housing Forecast: It’s November in June!"] Creative wordplay there! Plus I have a rough idea of what the article is about just by reading the title. I agree with the previous poster as well, I also liked the manner you provided the facts here. Kudos!

Vince
Vince

Your last statement sent shivers to my bones! It scares the hell out of me right now, I am a single dad trying to keep my home out of foreclosure. Times are really hard!

John
John

You have a good way of presenting your ideas and showing facts. I liked when you presented your predictions as if you were a housing market weatherman. Good job!

Jenna
Jenna

This is a sad fact. Even mny uncles who had been in the Real State industry had felt the effects of this recession. The chill in sales as what you have stated is felt all throughout the country. Hope for better days to come...

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TwinCitiesRealEstateBlog.com is not a Multiple Listing Service MLS, nor does it offer MLS access.
This website is a service of Aaron Dickinson of Edina Realty, a broker Participant of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.