Cash Buyers Nearly 30% of All February Twin Cities Home Sales

February 2011 saw a new record for the percentage of homes sold to cash buyers: a whopping 28.3% of all homes that closed in the month were purchased with cash.  Further, it also represents the largest number of units sold to cash buyers for the month of February: 624 homes sold in February 2011 to cash buyers, versus 514 homes during the same time last year and 438 in February 2009.

While some people complain about cash buyers (the majority are investors buying for rental or rehab & resale) competing with owner-occupant buyers using financing, the truth of the matter is that we’d be in a world of hurt without those cash buyers since housing supply would be far higher and would put even more pressure on prices.

The fact that so many cash buyers are in the market right now I believe is a very positive sign: cash buyers are making a 100% bet with their money that house prices are stabilizing – if prices were to drop substantially they have no ability to “walk away” because all their money is tied up in the house!

The charts below all explain the same data, just in different presentations to try and give you better context.

 

“4-Up” Version for easy printing (click image for PDF):

Stupidly Slow Short Sales That Seldom Sell

Here we are, years into the housing crisis, and it seems like while banks have become pretty good at selling foreclosures they are still horrible at closing short sales.  On average, short sales a have substantially lower chance of closing than traditional or bank owned listings, which means a huge number of short sales fail and go back to the bank as foreclosures.  At the end of the day, short sales sell for far more money than they do as an equivalent foreclosure so each failed short sale means thousands or tens of thousands of dollars more value lost:

 

While both Traditional listings and Lender Owned listings have had a decrease in days on market, Short Sales continue to see increases in days on market, which means that the response time from lenders is not improving but likely worsening!!!

 

If we can get more short sales to close then we will see fewer foreclosures in the future and less pressure on housing prices across the entire market. A successful short sale cuts a good 6-12 months from the housing crisis but only if the lenders, servicers and mortgage insurance companies work together to accomplish this task together.

Richfield’s Vacant Building Registration Program

The City of Richfield is currently considering a lengthy and wide-reaching ordinance regarding vacant buildings – both residential and commercial.  This issue has come up in many cities recently but this proposed ordinance is one of the most aggressive ones I have seen.  Please read the proposed ordinance here.

Cities across the country today are dealing with large numbers of foreclosures and with that come problem properties for the cities to deal with – which costs time and money and also affects the surrounding neighborhood.  While Richfield’s desire to reduce/eliminate blight and to better manage costs for protection and code enforcement are admirable, this proposed ordinance goes well beyond what I believe necessary.

I wanted to point out a few areas of this ordinance that I thought are of particular note:

  1. Vacant properties do not mean abandoned properties
    There are many vacant properties in cities that are regularly checked and maintained by the owners or a caretaker – while these properties may not have an occupant, they are not dilapidated or unsecured.  This ordinance makes no distinction between properties that are well cared for an those that are not.
  2. Policing a vacant but maintained property should not bear any additional costs
    The City states in the cover letter to the ordinance that they are looking for the extra costs of monitoring vacant properties be assigned to the owners of those properties.  If a vacant property’s exterior is being maintained and the home is properly secured, then the City’s costs to “monitor” the property are no higher than with any other property in the city.  In many circumstances it is impossible to tell a properly maintained home is vacant.
  3. “Snow birds” are given special treatment
    If the concern is that vacant buildings are a source of crime and disrepair, why are snow birds and other extended vacationers given special treatment?  A vacant property is a vacant property, is it not?  Snow birds still have to register the property but are given a waiver from fees.
  4. Vacant homes become code compliance nightmares
    The ordinance would allow building officials to inspect any vacant building at will and look for any code violations on or in the property and enforce code compliance prior to re-occupancy – power they do not have on occupied properties, except at time of sale. (4A-6 Subd.7)
  5. Properties vacant for more than 365 days can be required to be demolished
    While the provision does note that compliance officials can override this rule if a compliance officer approves a property plan, this leaves a very broad opportunity for the city to demolish problem properties and could be a shortcut to normal demolition procedures? (4A-4 (b) (4))
  6. Significant power rests with compliance officials
    Many provisions of the ordinance allow decision discretion to be made by the compliance officials and such decisions therefore may be unequally determined in each case. (pg 4A-2, Subd. 4)
  7. Many unintended parties may be impacted by this ordinance
    * Relocating homeowners in process of selling their home (any property vacant for 30 days is affected)
    * Estate situations 
    * Military deployments
    * Temporary employment in another location
    * Vacationing residents unaware of the ordinance
    * Landlords that have a gap in renters of more than 1 month (common especially in commercial)
  8. The problems that this ordinance intends to address are largely short-term problems
    The huge influx in foreclosed homes these last few years has added significantly to the list of problem properties, but this influx appears to already be peaking and should wane in the coming years.  Consequently the broad and complex nature of this ordinance will have substantially diminished value in just a few years.
  9. Most of the underlying issues can be resolved by general property maintenance ordinances
    * Occupied houses can have severe blight
    * Just like “time of sale” inspections, this ordinance will only have power over a subset of properties so it isn’t a comprehensive attack on city blight.
    *  Exterior maintenance (yard, debris, building, secured doors) should be an area of focus for all homes, not just the vacant ones
    *  This is a very involved compliance process, which means significant resources will be spent on this – time better spent in locating and addressing problem properties through conventional means.
    * “Problem properties” could have escalating enforcement and fines/penalties without targeting the innocent and compliant owners

We all desire stable, safe and  appealing neighborhoods but views on the proper approach to achieve such goals will vary widely. An ordinance with such impact needs discussion amongst all the stakeholders (property owners, real estate agents, property managers, city staff, city council) and an opportunity for dialog and input by the public at large before this is enacted.  The City of Richfield should slow this process down to allow for these conversations to happen before taking any further action.

A second reading is scheduled for March 22, 2011 and after that second reading, the City Council may vote to approve the ordinance at that time or any date subsequent. If you are concerned about this ordinance, the time to act is NOW!

Cheap Mortgages Are Gone!

The last few months have really seen a change in the cost of borrowing money for a home.  Here’s what has happened:

Interest rates have moved from 4.3% in November to 5% today
The interest rate increase of .7% in just a few months’ time dramatically affects the qualification amounts for buyers and has a strong impact on monthly payment.  Buying power could be reduced approximately $15,000 on a $200,000 loan or the payment may go up by around $80 per month.

See:
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm
http://themortgagereports.com/4913/homeownership-costs-30-year-fixed
http://kcmblog.com/2011/02/11/the-cost-of-waiting-for-prices-to-fall/

FHA is increasing the annual mortgage insurance premium by .25% starting April 18th
The FHA insured mortgage, which was used in 30% of home purchases in the Twin Cities in the 2nd half of 2010, will see the mortgage insurance premium rise to better account for the loan losses suffered by FHA in recent years.  This increase in cost will add another $40 per month to a $200,000 loan or drop buying power by close to another $8000.

See:
http://www.behindthemortgage.com/2011/02/fha-mortgage-insurance-costs-going-up-on-april-18th-2011.html 
http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/press/press_releases_media_advisories/2011/HUDNo.11-013

Put together, these increases to the costs of mortgages dramatically change the affordability of homes and with additional interest rate increases being forecasted by many in the industry, buyers who have waited to see if house prices would decline further have in fact seen house payment costs increase and are likely to see additional increases this year.



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