What are normally the coldest weeks in the real estate market are this year much warmer than normal, just like our weather. We’ve seen huge year-over-year increases in Pending Sales for months now but the weeks ending 12/17 and 12/24 saw 48% more accepted purchase agreements than a year ago. Those are numbers you just can’t ignore. If/when the temperature drops will we see less buyer activity? Time will soon tell… if buyer activity does fall then some of this can be chalked up to just the weather. If it does not, this signals what could be a fundamental increase in buyer demand moving forward.
Twin Cities Foreclosures Hit 4+ Year Low
In recent months a common phrase has been uttered by countless buyers and real estate agents: “where are all the foreclosures?” Since August 2010 the Twin Cities Region has seen foreclosures for sale drop 52% from approximately 4000 to about 1900 today. This is the first time since July 2007 that we have seen inventory this low.
Twin Cities Homes for Sale
Based on data available as of December 2, 2011. All data from Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
Traditional Seller inventory is at 7+ year lows and even short sales are declining in numbers too. Many sellers that take their home off the market this time of year may want to reconsider – with less competition today than we’ve seen in many years the buyers have far fewer choices available.
I hear stories in my office every day from agents that are in multiple offers on a foreclosure with their buyer and in many cases they are selling over asking price.
While this does not signal an end to the foreclosure crisis, it is another positive indicator of our market coming back into balance and that in and of itself is a huge win.
Pricing Your Home Right for Today’s Market
The housing market is full of a mix of Foreclosures, Short Sales and Traditional Sellers. Traditional Sellers today have fewer foreclosures, short sales and other traditional sellers to compete with than last year but the competition is still heavy since we still have far more home inventory than we have buyers for it.
A while back I did a market analysis for a potential seller and while their current competition’s prices were all above $200k, all the sales of comparable properties were well below $200k. What’s worse is that most of the homes that did sell only sold after 200 to 300+ days on the market. The pattern was very consistent!
I showed this to the sellers and explained to them that while their active competition may suggest a higher list price, a list price below the competition will mean that prospective buyers are far more likely to negotiate with them rather than the others for sale.
At the end of the day, they did list below $200k and saw good showing activity and open house traffic and accepted an offer in just a couple weeks on the market. The seller saved literally months on the market and were negotiating from a place of strength (short market time, good interest, good feedback) versus a weak position that you find yourself in when a home has been on the market for several different seasons.
Some sellers still believe that they cannot “give away” the house at the price the market indicates so they list the home higher in hopes that the “right buyer” will come along and give them their price. Well unless the home is extremely unique or extremely coveted this strategy consistently fails.
The market price is what the market price is – in this market there are still a lot of sellers on the market that can’t or won’t sell at the market price, but that number seems to continue to diminish as more sellers come to grips with the realities of what is still a difficult housing market.
Twin Cities Homes For Sale Inventory Hits 7 Year Low
The Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS has just announced October’s housing numbers and surprises us with a whopper: In October 2011 there were fewer homes for sale than any October since 2004!
The inventory of Twin Cities homes for sale has seen a progressive decline since its peak in 2007 and that decline I believe is likely to continue into 2012. Many homeowners today that want to sell cannot because of the market and thus are staying put and not putting their homes on the market. Further, with the large number of foreclosures and short sales sold in recent years, the number of “move up” buyers is greatly reduced since when a foreclosure or short sale sells there isn’t a new buyer created.
Home unit sales are still down significantly from 2004′s levels though so our housing supply is still not balanced, but it is getting closer and closer each month. We will likely in fact swing to a statistical seller’s market in the next couple years, but I don’t see that as creating much upward pressure on prices but rather will put a good support in for the prices we are at.



