Twin Cities Real Estate Market Update – October 30, 2011

Halloween marks the beginning of the significant seasonal slowdown in real estate activity that we see each year.  As days get shorter and the weather gets colder, many home buyers and sellers settle in where they are for the winter. Buyer activity and homes for sale have both seen about a 10% decline in the last 3 months but the most significant drops for the whole year come in November and December.

By the end of the year I am predicting that we’ll be down to home inventory levels we haven’t seen since 2005… yes, that is six years ago.  Home buyer activity today though is far lower than it was in 2005 so while this is great news, it doesn’t mean we are out of the woods yet.

One trend I have noticed this year is that more buyers are having a difficult time locating what they want.  Yes, there are still a lot of homes for sale, but for certain price points and in certain areas, the inventory is extremely low.  This has lead some buyers to raise their price ranges a little to find more options, for others it has meant months of searching or in some cases putting their home search on hold.

We are by no means into recovery mode in the Twin Cities but each month it seems like the fundamentals of supply and demand are coming closer into line.  What makes this even more reassuring is that this is all happening during what is the toughest economic period in decades.  As supply continues to drop and buyer demand finds a fundamental bottom (I believe it already has) we should see prices start to stabilize.  Even price stability would be a huge win for our market!

When will we see prices stabilize?  Well is some pockets and price points I think they already have.  For most of the Twin Cities though it remains more questionable.  Ultimately the economy will have the final say over housing – until there is real job growth there will remain pressure on housing prices. When we do see economic growth, the interest rate increases that will come along with it will keep prices from climbing quickly.

The housing news in the next few months will be mostly negative as a result of our seasonal real estate cycle but it is far more important to look at the long term trends versus the month-to-month information.  When you look at the big picture, I think housing isn’t as scary as it was a few years ago.

Townhome & Condo Foreclosures Affect Other Unit Owners

The Star Tribune has a piece titled: Whistleblower: Homeowners pick up the tab. The Strib just scratches the surface of this issue.

When someone buys into a townhome or condo development, they are becoming part owner of a nonprofit corporation that has ownership of common elements in the development and responsibilities for maintenance, insurance, utilities, etc for these common elements.

When one of the shareholders (homeowners) stops paying their mortgage, they typically stop paying the association dues as well.  When the bank comes along and forecloses on the property, in most cases in Minnesota the delinquent association dues are wiped out.  Those dues are now lost forever and can total $1000′s on each unit that is foreclosed.

What’s happening today is that many condominium and townhouse developments are seeing substantial foreclosure rates of 10% to 20% or even higher.  This has a huge impact on the association’s financial health as it hurts both the operating fund for daily costs but also the reserve fund that protects for future repairs/replacements.

The Board of Directors and their management company, if any, have a duty to run the association appropriately and in the face of these huge losses, associations are often using a combination of service cuts, association fee increases and special assessments.  After all, the association can’t just go bankrupt and walk away… it needs to function for the benefit of all of the shareholder owners.  What is done to keep it functioning and how severely it is done is very dependent on the size of the association, the foreclosure rate, the financial health of the association in the past, and the decisions made by the Board.

Most homeowners rarely if ever attend association meetings – in some associations it is very difficult to get even half the homeowners to the annual meeting and a handful to the meetings the rest of the year.  Typically homeowners don’t worry about their association until a decision is made that affects them and then they get interested real quick.  The problem is that by the time you have a problem, the decisions that were made affecting the problem are all in the past.  The time to affect the outcomes of your association is before and during the issues… not after!

Townhouses and condos are still great living arrangements for people looking for less maintenance than a single family home – just keep in mind that unless you are active in your association, you may be in for an unexpected and unwelcome surprise.

1700+ Short Sales Stuck Waiting for Bank Approval

Short Sales By The Numbers:

5,000

We have just under 5000 short sales currently for sale in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area.

1,700

In the Twin Cities, we now have more than 1,700 short sales that have received offers and are waiting for the seller’s lender(s) to provide a response, 100′s more than we had a year ago.  By the way, this means that 1700+ buyers are tied up waiting for properties they may or may not ever get to buy.

35%

Percent of short sale properties for sale that are currently stuck in Lender Approval Limbo that can run anywhere from a few weeks (rarely) to many months (typical).

5.4

Number of months of short sale approval backlog when considering that over the last 12 months we’re only averaging 322 closed short sales each month.

Commentary

The number of total homes we have tied up waiting for lender approval is probably very close to 2000 when taking into account other MLS statuses and minutia too complex to discuss here.  We are years into this housing downturn and while banks seem to have figured out foreclosure sales and can process those pretty smoothly, they are nowhere close to having short sales down.  Considering a large percent of the failed short sales end up as foreclosures, quickly and properly addressing short sales could literally cut 12+ months off of our foreclosure activity.

Banks: get your stuff together and help us (agents/buyers/short sellers) help you.

MN Government Shutdown Means Fewer Real Estate Agents

Of the many things that are affected by the Minnesota Government Shutdown is a majority of the Department of Commerce.  The Department of Commerce does things like well, regulate commerce.  With it largely shut down, investigations and enforcement are hampered and any businesses that rely on licensing cannot make changes or additions until the doors open back up.

Real Estate Agents in Minnesota are required to be licensed and get re-licensed every 2 years by filing a renewal and completing 30 hours of continuing education.  Licenses expire on June 30th and quite a few agents did not complete their renewals timely.  Usually this just means a small penalty and a couple days of hassle.  This year however, if their license lapsed July 1st they will not be able to be reinstated until the government reopens… whenever that means.

I am quite confident that means 100, 200, or even more agents are currently without a career – if you do not have a current license it is illegal for you to practice real estate sales.  Further, we have somewhere around 100-150 newly educated and tested people each month that will not be able to get licensed until the doors reopen.  At the same time the number of real estate agents is still declining in Minnesota, so this is amplifying the trend… at least in the interim.

Agents that want to switch brokers and agents that are ready to open their own brokerage are also stuck for the same reasons.  Most of this stuff is now computerized and requires little to no human intervention but the servers were taken down at the time the lights went out.  If anyone wants to find out if someone is licensed, they won’t be able to do that till the lights come back on either!

As we now are nearing the end of the 2nd week of government malfeasance, I cannot help but wonder how long this will go on.  For those of us who are still licensed, there will be just a smidge less competition for buyers and sellers – for however long this problem continues.



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This website is a service of Aaron Dickinson of Edina Realty, a broker Participant of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.