Garbage In, Garbage Out

In the last couple weeks I have been searching our local MLS for a couple different clients and find myself frustrated by the lack of information provided.  Too many agents today still seem to get away with putting up a photo or two and the barest minimum of information.  This makes it terribly difficult to locate properties for my clients in the first place and discard those that are not viable in the second.

Unfortunately there is no way to force agents to provide more than the bare minimum other than the clients of these agents.  Until clients demand better work product from their agents, the bare minimum is all that will be provided by some.  Grr!

Twin Cities Homes For Sale Inventory Hits 7 Year Low

The Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS has just announced October’s housing numbers and surprises us with a whopper:  In October 2011 there were fewer homes for sale than any October since 2004!

 

The inventory of Twin Cities homes for sale has seen a progressive decline since its peak in 2007 and that decline I believe is likely to continue into 2012.  Many homeowners today that want to sell cannot because of the market and thus are staying put and not putting their homes on the market.  Further, with the large number of foreclosures and short sales sold in recent years, the number of “move up” buyers is greatly reduced since when a foreclosure or short sale sells there isn’t a new buyer created.

Home unit sales are still down significantly from 2004′s levels though so our housing supply is still not balanced, but it is getting closer and closer each month.  We will likely in fact swing to a statistical seller’s market in the next couple years, but I don’t see that as creating much upward pressure on prices but rather will put a good support in for the prices we are at.

Twin Cities Real Estate Market Update – October 30, 2011

Halloween marks the beginning of the significant seasonal slowdown in real estate activity that we see each year.  As days get shorter and the weather gets colder, many home buyers and sellers settle in where they are for the winter. Buyer activity and homes for sale have both seen about a 10% decline in the last 3 months but the most significant drops for the whole year come in November and December.

By the end of the year I am predicting that we’ll be down to home inventory levels we haven’t seen since 2005… yes, that is six years ago.  Home buyer activity today though is far lower than it was in 2005 so while this is great news, it doesn’t mean we are out of the woods yet.

One trend I have noticed this year is that more buyers are having a difficult time locating what they want.  Yes, there are still a lot of homes for sale, but for certain price points and in certain areas, the inventory is extremely low.  This has lead some buyers to raise their price ranges a little to find more options, for others it has meant months of searching or in some cases putting their home search on hold.

We are by no means into recovery mode in the Twin Cities but each month it seems like the fundamentals of supply and demand are coming closer into line.  What makes this even more reassuring is that this is all happening during what is the toughest economic period in decades.  As supply continues to drop and buyer demand finds a fundamental bottom (I believe it already has) we should see prices start to stabilize.  Even price stability would be a huge win for our market!

When will we see prices stabilize?  Well is some pockets and price points I think they already have.  For most of the Twin Cities though it remains more questionable.  Ultimately the economy will have the final say over housing – until there is real job growth there will remain pressure on housing prices. When we do see economic growth, the interest rate increases that will come along with it will keep prices from climbing quickly.

The housing news in the next few months will be mostly negative as a result of our seasonal real estate cycle but it is far more important to look at the long term trends versus the month-to-month information.  When you look at the big picture, I think housing isn’t as scary as it was a few years ago.

3 Home Buyer Financing Lies

#1 – Buyers need 20% cash down to buy a home

Did you know that some buyers can still buy a home with NO DOWN PAYMENT?  The USDA Rural Development and Department of Veterans Affairs loan programs both offer 0% down payment options.  In the case of the USDA, it is income and location restricted.  For VA loans, active military and veterans are often eligible based on their time, type and years of service.  There can also be some smaller local programs with very specific criteria that can get you close to no down payment too – the Minnesota Home Ownership Center has a great list of affordable loan programs.

For those that do not qualify for one of the programs above, there’s good old-fashioned FHA financing.  For years this program was forgotten but with the tighter lending standards of today, FHA has come back into vogue big time.  In the Twin Cities, loans amounts up to $318,550 can be financed with only 3.5% down payment through the FHA.  Loan limits for other areas are available here.

One more thing to keep in mind is that FHA & VA loans may be assumable by the next borrower (with qualifying) and thus if rates are 7% five years from now and a homeowner can offer the remainder of their loan at 4%, buyers will be lining up to take advantage of that deal!

#2 – Buyers have to have perfect credit

Today people need to be able to demonstrate a history of managing their credit well – i.e. making payments on time, having other loans/credit cards, etc.  They also need to have a stable career, which typically means 2 years of job history in their current line of work (schooling is taken into account for recent grads) and have a few bucks in the bank for unexpected surprises.

From my conversations with several different lender friends, today’s lending requirements are still less strict than they were in the 1990′s.  So in the greater context of home financing in the last couple decades, it is still easy to get a loan if you are actually equipped to handle such a responsibility.

What has really made life tougher is that now each loan has no margin for error.  Each loan application is being reviewed, re-reviewed and reviewed again.  The underwriting department will often come up with what seems like crazy requests for documenting every last item of your credit and income.  Unless you lied or “forgot” to mention something on your credit app, nearly all buyers are still making it to the closing table.

#3 – Banks are not lending money

Banks are lending tons of money.  If banks wanted to lend less money they would simply raise the interest rates they offer to decrease the number of loans people request – simply not lending money doesn’t make sense.  Even though mortgage rates are around 4% on a 30 year fixed rate loan, banks are only paying people .25% for their deposits – there is still money to be made!  Further, many loans are sold off to others and thus free up the bank to re-lend that money again.

If you are qualified buyer (see #2) and are having trouble getting a loan, I’ve got a bunch of lender friends that would be happy to help you!



Equal Housing Opportunity and REALTOR logo

TwinCitiesRealEstateBlog.com is not a Multiple Listing Service MLS, nor does it offer MLS access.
This website is a service of Aaron Dickinson of Edina Realty, a broker Participant of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.