The Post Tax Credit Property Purchasing Plummet

Have we found the “New Normal” in Twin Cities real estate activity?  I have to image we have.  For more than 3 months we’ve seen showing activity down 35% – 40% from the year prior:

Twin Cities Showing Appointments


Twin Cities Pending Sales, which are signed contracts between a buyer and a seller, are experiencing a similar magnitude of decline as showing activity, which I think supports my belief that we’re in an extended period of diminished demand:

August 9, 2010 Pending Sales


While both buyer and seller activity is down post-credit, buyer activity is down more than seller activity which means that the inventory of homes for sale on the market is slowly climbing and is now 6.6% above last year at this time and is now slightly higher than at any point in 2009.

Twin Cities Homes for Sale - August 9, 2010


I see the rest of the year trending with continued showing activity and pending sales lower than last year at this time, though I expect the difference to shrink some in the coming weeks.  Inventory is likely to continue its creep up in response, but we’re still way off out inventory highs of 2007 & 2008.

Twin Cities Pending Home Sales Continue Drop

Last week I discussed the precipitous drop in Twin Cities Pending Home Sales activity.  Today MAAR released another week’s activity report and the extended drop in buyer activity continues.

Twin Cities Pending Home Sales

While we had a few more pending sales than the week prior, we’re still 34.6% below the same week last year.  This great disparity is no doubt the continued hangover from the expiration of the tax credit but this hangover is quickly becoming a wicked one.  These are historically the busiest weeks of the year and instead our sales in May were anemically similar to what we’d usually see in November.

Thankfully we’ve also seen a dramatic drop of new listing activity as well, which has helped keep a lid on total inventory of homes for sale.

New Twin Cities Homes for Sale

Twin Cities Houses for Sale

This market lull isn’t bad for everyone – buyers still in the market to buy a home that were looking in the weeks leading up to the tax credit expiration have found that the 40% less competition has lead to better quality inventory to choose from.  Several of my buyers have located houses since the expiration and in each case the buyer and I felt that the house was better than what we were seeing for the same price prior to the tax credit expiration.

Twin Cities Home Sales Have Best Week Since 2005

Today the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS released their weekly update of housing statistics for the Twin Cities and showed that for the week ending 4/24/2010, there were 1184 properties in the 13 county region that went to “Pending” status, meaning an offer has been accepted by the seller and the property is no longer available for showings.

While this is the strongest number of the year and very close to the highest weekly numbers seen in 2009, it looks like the final week of April will go down as the busiest week in the Twin Cities housing market sing 2005.  Based on an MLS query I just ran, it appears that approximately 1450 properties Pended from 4/25/10 to 5/1/10!  It is also quite likely that the week ending 5/8/10 will also be a good week since often houses do not go Pending until after a buyer completes their inspection(s) of the property and the seller stops all showings.

While the home buyer tax credits no longer apply to newly accepted offers, the effects of the credit will still be seen for the next couple of months in our housing numbers as we see all these pended properties close.  While I don’t see nor expect the housing market to come to a screeching halt now that housing has to support itself, I feel pretty confident in saying that we’ve seen the busiest weeks of the year.

$8000 Tax Credit Worth Prison Time?

With the tax credit deadline for signed purchase agreements being today, I know there are a few buyers scurrying around trying their last efforts to find a home to buy in time.  From what attorneys have told me, contracts need to be fully executed (signed) by both Buyer and Seller before 11:59pm today and then close by the end of June.

In cases of a short sale, the 3rd party approval that’s required is treated just like any other contingency – so long as the purchase agreement is fully executed by today, bank approval and subsequently the closing can occur up till the end of June.

For anyone who finds a house this weekend or next week and thinks about backdating the signatures so that the purchase appears to qualify for the tax credit, please keep in mind that you are dealing with potential violations of federal tax law as well as mortgage fraud, wire fraud and others.

Oh yeah – I’m not an attorney or tax professional, please seek their advise for any legal or tax advice.



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This website is a service of Aaron Dickinson of Edina Realty, a broker Participant of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.