2 in 3 Bank Owned Homes Under $100k Sold to Cash Buyers

During the first 6 months of 2010, 63% of all the bank owned homes under $100,000 were purchased with cash.  Why is this?

  1. Banks LOVE cash
    Banks that have foreclosure inventory on their books want to sell those homes quickly and they want to be sure that if they accept an offer that the buyer will be able to close on the property. Cash offers can close quickly and also eliminate concerns about appraisals and the buyer’s lender approvals so the seller has higher confidence it will close.  All things being equal, banks will take a cash offer every time.  I have seen banks take offers 15% plus percent less simply because they were cash offers.
  2. Cheap foreclosed houses almost always have condition issues that make financing tough
    While the repairs may be straightforward to complete, lenders today are much less lenient on condition and many foreclosures are in such bad shape that they need to be purchased with “renovation financing” or straight out cash.  Renovation loans are more difficult and time consuming to get and also have higher finance charges.
  3. Many home buyers are scared of home repairs required
    Many buyers who would purchase with a loan do not go after houses at these prices because the work required to bring them up to standards is something they are afraid to take on as a project.
  4. Investors are very active in this market
    Property flipping has come back in vogue – though this time the increased home price on resale is due to the repairs the rehabbers made versus just time passing like it was in the boom years.  We also have investors who are buying homes for rental properties since many homes for sale will easily cash flow even after extensive repairs.

2010 Twin Cities House Prices – Fall Forecast

Twin Cities Median Sales Price – All Properties

Median Sales Price- Twin Cities - All Properties

(image courtesy Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS)

What does the fall and winter 2010 hold for Twin Cities home prices? If the last couple years are any benchmark, we should see median sales prices drop substantially… most likely back to the $155,000-$160,000 range that we have seen the last two years.  The fact that buyer activity has slackened since the expiration of the tax credits and our very seasonal market make this a pretty safe bet to make.

It is important to keep in mind that Median Sales Price can be useful but also deceptive – it doesn’t take into account the type, size, condition or location of the properties that are selling – it just looks at what has sold in the month and picks the price that is in the middle of all those sales prices.  A lot of what sells in the cold months are houses that must sell for reasons like relocation, foreclosure, estates, etc.  Many sellers are “fair weather sellers” that aren’t desperate to sell and therefore take their house off the market in the colder months or simply do not aggressively drop their price to sell.

In fact, when separating Median Sales Price out by traditional sellers, foreclosures (bank owned), and short sales we find that there really isn’t nearly as much variability as what the composite numbers show:

Median Sales Price by Type of Sale


(image courtesy Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS)

Will Median Sales Price drop this winter? Yes.  Will actual home values drop this winter?  If history and seasonality hold true, yes… but not as much as what some of the market statistics will make it look.

2010 Twin Cities Pre-Foreclosure Notices up 20% vs 2009

The Minnesota Home Ownership Center has been tracking pre-foreclosure notices received by foreclosure counseling agencies throughout Minnesota and just posted some updated charts that show 2010 pre-foreclosure notices are consistently higher than the same time frame in 2009.  Through June 2010, notices are up a considerable 20%:

Twin Cities Pre-Foreclosure Notices

I don’t find these numbers very surprising: the lackluster economy isn’t providing the new jobs necessary to reduce unemployment and those who are unemployed can only afford to make house payments for so long.  In a few weeks we should see HousingLink’s updated foreclosure report that shows how many properties went through sheriff sale.  While it is clear those numbers will be higher than 2009′s, I am interested in seeing how they compare to 2008, which was Minnesota’s highest foreclosure activity year thus far.  Given recent trends I wouldn’t be surprised if we meet or even rise a little higher than 2008′s numbers.

Twin Cities Region - New MLS Listings – 12 Month Rolling Average:

Any uptick in foreclosure activity is unlikely to have immediate impact in the home sale market because of the lengthy Minnesota foreclosure process and the time it takes banks to prepare those properties for resale.  So we are likely to see an increase in new foreclosure (REO) listings in 2011 to account for this.

The other trend to watch for though is the increase in short sales that are successfully closing.  June 2010 saw a 40% increase in short sale closings from the same month in 2009 and represented 11% of all sales in the Twin Cities in June, up from just 7% a year ago.  As short sales close in higher numbers we may see fewer homes that receive pre-foreclosure notices go through sheriff sale and thus eventually less bank owned listings on the MLS.

Twin Cities: 1 in 6 Homes Purchased With Cash in 1st Half of 2010

Based on data from NorthstarMLS, I was able to put together the following chart that shows how home buyers in the first 1/2 of 2010 were financing their purchases.  Fully 1 in every 6 buyers paid in cold hard cash, a huge increase from the 1 in 20 to 1 in 25 ratio more typical of this market.

While our MLS does not track the data necessary to confirm it, in my experience the vast majority of cash purchases are investors/rehabbers – I would put the number at 75% or higher.



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TwinCitiesRealEstateBlog.com is not a Multiple Listing Service MLS, nor does it offer MLS access.
This website is a service of Aaron Dickinson of Edina Realty, a broker Participant of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.