Twin Cities Sudden Buyer’s Market

In just a few short months we’ve seen the number of houses available for sale per buyer (8.64) climb to levels we have not seen since late 2008 and up a whopping 63% from August last year!

August 2010 Supply Demand Ratio - Twin Cities


With buyer demand having slackened so substantially after the tax credit expiration even a relatively normal amount of houses for sale are spread amongst far fewer buyers, giving buyers more choice (and in theory more negotiating power) than they have had in some time.  Normally we see spikes in the SDR in the November & December time frame as buyers hibernate over the holidays and cold & dark nights.  Instead of the normal calendar cycle we instead have the chill brought on by the aftermath of a couple years of extraordinary housing stimulus.

We will likely see home prices fall some in response to Buyers’ new found leverage but how much and how quickly remains to be seen.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we gave up all of the median sales price gains from earlier this year by the end of this year.



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Twin Cities Home Sales Plummet

The fallout from the tax credit expiration continues to be felt by home sellers, agents, home inspectors, loan officers and appraisers – showings and Pending Sales are both down about 40% versus the same time last year!
May 2010 Home Showing Stats

(data prior to April 2009 is not complete)



Twin Cities Homes for Sale - Pending Sales

This is certainly not surprising – many of the buyers that would have bought later this year had great incentive to make an offer earlier in the year.  What remains to be seen is what happens with home sales after this bad hangover is over.  When the statistics for the last week of May are released next week I suspect we’ll see the same tepid activity – I know it was pretty quiet in my office last week!

$8000 Tax Credit Worth Prison Time?

With the tax credit deadline for signed purchase agreements being today, I know there are a few buyers scurrying around trying their last efforts to find a home to buy in time.  From what attorneys have told me, contracts need to be fully executed (signed) by both Buyer and Seller before 11:59pm today and then close by the end of June.

In cases of a short sale, the 3rd party approval that’s required is treated just like any other contingency – so long as the purchase agreement is fully executed by today, bank approval and subsequently the closing can occur up till the end of June.

For anyone who finds a house this weekend or next week and thinks about backdating the signatures so that the purchase appears to qualify for the tax credit, please keep in mind that you are dealing with potential violations of federal tax law as well as mortgage fraud, wire fraud and others.

Oh yeah – I’m not an attorney or tax professional, please seek their advise for any legal or tax advice.

First Time Buyer Homes In Short Supply In Twin Cities

I have two buyers in the $125,000 – $150,ooo price range that are struggling to find houses when just a few months ago there was a lot more inventory to choose from.  This weekend my clients wanted to see a total of 11 houses – I found out that 4 were already sold subject to inspection and of the remaining 7, only 2 had no offers on them.  One of my buyers has offered on 6 different homes and been outbid by others every time.  These experiences are quite common in my office right now!

While our local statistics show many houses on the market in that price range, this data is based off of MLS listing status and it takes anywhere from a few days to a week or more before a property with an accepted offer is marked as “Pending” on the MLS and is removed from the count of properties for sale.  With this in mind, I think we’ll see houses listed in the $150,000 and under price point Pend at a high rate over the next two weeks.

To all the banks out there that might have delayed the foreclosure process in an effort to manage your REO inventory: you’ve missed the boat.  We Realtors have lots of buyers who are clamoring for your inventory  and you have almost none to sell to us.



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TwinCitiesRealEstateBlog.com is not a Multiple Listing Service MLS, nor does it offer MLS access.
This website is a service of Aaron Dickinson of Edina Realty, a broker Participant of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.