Twin Cities Sudden Buyer’s Market

In just a few short months we’ve seen the number of houses available for sale per buyer (8.64) climb to levels we have not seen since late 2008 and up a whopping 63% from August last year!

August 2010 Supply Demand Ratio - Twin Cities


With buyer demand having slackened so substantially after the tax credit expiration even a relatively normal amount of houses for sale are spread amongst far fewer buyers, giving buyers more choice (and in theory more negotiating power) than they have had in some time.  Normally we see spikes in the SDR in the November & December time frame as buyers hibernate over the holidays and cold & dark nights.  Instead of the normal calendar cycle we instead have the chill brought on by the aftermath of a couple years of extraordinary housing stimulus.

We will likely see home prices fall some in response to Buyers’ new found leverage but how much and how quickly remains to be seen.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we gave up all of the median sales price gains from earlier this year by the end of this year.



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No Houses Left for First Time Buyers

In the last few months we’ve seen a flurry of sales as first time buyers are trying to close on a home purchase before the $8000 tax credit expires on November 30th (maybe).

This has largely lead to the precipitous decline of available inventory on the under $190k and brought Months supply of homes in the 1st time buyer category down as much as 60%!

Minneapolis Housing Supply by Price Point - October 2009

This has been seen expecially strong in the Lender Mediated category, and particularly in the Bank Owned segment:

Inventory Chart of Foreclosures and Short Sales

While it is quite possible that the tax credit is extended, the question becomes whether there will be houses out there for these buyers to purchase.  In the Under $120k segment there is less than 3 months of supply.  When considering that close to 1/2 of these properties listed for sale are likely already pending, the real supply at this price point is very tight – I have several clients hunting desperately for homes and are quite disappointed.  Some of these buyers may not be able to find a home even if the credit is extended.

Even in the $120k – $150k and $150k – $190k price points we’ve seen substantial reductions in available inventory and months supply and this has decreased the options for many buyers.  While there is still many homes to choose from, even this inventory is “picked over” by buyers, meaning it is either a bad floor plan, bad condition, bad location, badly overpriced, or a combination of all the above.  There are still many more foreclosures and short sales coming in the next year (as well as Traditional Sellers too) but the demand for these price points has been substantially stronger than new supply coming on for many months now and so I question whether the available inventory will climb much in 2010.

I have several clients that want to use the tax credit but have said they won’t settle just to get the money.  Good for them – that is definitely the right way to look at it!

If and when Congress passes an extension of the 1st time home buyer credit, buyers may still find themselves with nothing to buy.  I wonder how much Washington has thought about that?

HUD: Tax Credit Can Be Used on Closing Costs

FHA-approved lenders received the go-ahead to develop bridge-loan products that enable first-time buyers to use the benefits of the federal tax credit upfront, according to eagerly awaited guidance from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development on so-called home buyer tax credit loans that was released today.

Under the guidance, FHA-approved lenders can develop bridge loans that home buyers can use to help cover their closing costs, buy down their interest rate, or put down more than the minimum 3.5 percent.

The loans can’t be used to cover the minimum 3.5 percent, senior HUD officials told reporters on a conference call Friday morning.

Thus, buyers applying for FHA-backed financing with an FHA-approved lender that offers a bridge-loan program can get a bridge loan to bring down the upfront costs of buying a home significantly but would still have to come up with the minimum 3.5 percent downpayment.

There remain many sources of assistance for buyers needing help with the 3.5 percent downpayment, including many state and local government instrumentalities and nonprofit lenders.

In addition, some state housing finance agencies have developed their own tax credit bridge loan programs, so buyers in states whose HFAs offer such programs can monetize the tax credit upfront to cover all or part of their downpayment. These programs are separate from what HUD announced today.

The first-time homebuyer tax credit was enacted last year–and improved upon earlier this year–to help encourage households to enter the housing market while interest rates are low and affordability is high. The credit is worth up to $8,000 and is available to households that haven’t owned a home in at least three years. The credit does not have to be repaid, and is fully reimbursable, so households can get their credit returned to them in the form of a payment.

Learn more about the credit, including how to apply for it this year even if you’ve already filed your taxes, at REALTOR.org.

Source: Robert Freedman, REALTOR Magazine Online



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