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2010 Twin Cities House Prices – Fall Forecast

Twin Cities Median Sales Price – All Properties

Median Sales Price- Twin Cities - All Properties

(image courtesy Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS)

What does the fall and winter 2010 hold for Twin Cities home prices? If the last couple years are any benchmark, we should see median sales prices drop substantially… most likely back to the $155,000-$160,000 range that we have seen the last two years.  The fact that buyer activity has slackened since the expiration of the tax credits and our very seasonal market make this a pretty safe bet to make.

It is important to keep in mind that Median Sales Price can be useful but also deceptive – it doesn’t take into account the type, size, condition or location of the properties that are selling – it just looks at what has sold in the month and picks the price that is in the middle of all those sales prices.  A lot of what sells in the cold months are houses that must sell for reasons like relocation, foreclosure, estates, etc.  Many sellers are “fair weather sellers” that aren’t desperate to sell and therefore take their house off the market in the colder months or simply do not aggressively drop their price to sell.

In fact, when separating Median Sales Price out by traditional sellers, foreclosures (bank owned), and short sales we find that there really isn’t nearly as much variability as what the composite numbers show:

Median Sales Price by Type of Sale


(image courtesy Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS)

Will Median Sales Price drop this winter? Yes.  Will actual home values drop this winter?  If history and seasonality hold true, yes… but not as much as what some of the market statistics will make it look.

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4 comments
Aaron Dickinson
Aaron Dickinson

Ryanl- There are some holdout sellers that won't accept reality... I do my best not to take those listings anymore since no amount of skill or dumb luck is going to sell a house that's not priced for the market.

ryanl
ryanl

Aren't all true transactions "must" sell. People that aren't dropping prices or adjusting are really just "browsing" aren't they. Is their a real estate term for "testing the waters" - Kiting?

ryanl
ryanl

Aren't all true transactions "must" sell. People that aren't dropping prices or adjusting are really just "browsing" aren't they. Is their a real estate term for "testing the waters" - Kiting?

Chuck Harris
Chuck Harris

Only when separating the distressed housing like you have can a typical home buyer or seller truly understand how current market conditions will effect them.

Disclaimer

TwinCitiesRealEstateBlog.com is not a Multiple Listing Service MLS, nor does it offer MLS access.
This website is a service of Aaron Dickinson of Edina Realty, a broker Participant of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.