Twin Cities Real Estate Rollercoaster

Betsy Soderlund wants the emotional roller coaster that is the Minneapolis real estate market to be less like the cork screw and more like the flume. – @betsysoderlund

This Twitter post last night sums up what many people in the real estate market are feeling right now.  Things seem to be going up, down, left, right and twisting all at the same time. This is a list of the items I currently see as affecting everyone’s psychological health in the real estate market today:

REO’s/REO Brokers

  • I’ve talked at length about this here… ’nuff said

Appraisals/Appraisers

  • Fewer appraisers today than in year’s past
  • Large refinancing boom creating huge demand
  • Appraisals can take 1-3 weeks to complete
  • New appraisal rules add another layer of bureaucracy to the process
  • Appraisers are required to be much more detailed and precise in their appraisals, causing them to take much longer.
  • Some appraisals come in too low… often because the appraiser uses foreclosures and short sales as comps but makes very little adjustment for condition and sale distress, making apples and oranges look all like oranges on an appraisal.

Underwriters/Mortgage Companies

  • Underwriters were also trimmed in recent years
  • Underwriting guidelines continually are changing
  • Underwriters look at everything with a fine toothed comb
  • Underwriting can take a week longer than in the past
  • Underwriters sometimes come up with more requests a few days (or hours) before the closing

Title Work/Title Companies

  • Nearly all title companies reduced staff in the last 48 months to take into account the significantly lowered demand.  Now that closings are up 20% over last year, many find themselves overworked.
  • Title companies that sprung up during the “boom years” didn’t always do a good job on the paperwork (filing payoffs, clearing title) and consequently the current title company has to clean up their mess.

Buyers/Sellers

  • There seems to be more emotion on both sides of the table
  • Buyers are stressed about rates & qualifying
  • Buyers don’t want to “overpay” and are seeing/reading/hearing a lot of different things and can’t extract the gold from the ore

Competition

  • On the sell side, there are so many different types of sellers with so many different motivations: traditional, short sale, foreclosure, relocation, investor, etc
  • On the buy side, there’s increased competition for far fewer homes than last year
  • The best priced houses get an offer in the first 60 days on market

Interest Rates

  • Rates have been bouncing around like crazy in the last week or two.  I’ve seen quotes for 4.5% and 5.5% in the span of one week for the same loan type!

The Media

  • We’ve got local numbers, national numbers, numbers tracking the same thing but reported differently by 2-3 groups
  • Some say the bottom is here, some say the bottom is near, some say the bottom is far ahead… yet none of them agree on what a bottom is defined as.

It’s an interesting time in the real estate market today… don’t you think?

Foreclosures and Short Sales Skewing Twin Cities MLS Statistics

In the first quarter of 2007, sold homes reported by the MLS were 90% “Traditional Sellers” and 10% “Bank Mediated Sellers” (bank owned foreclosures and/or short sales).

In the first quarter of 2008, these “bank mediated” listings comprised more than 27% of the sales. The Median Sales Price of homes sold by Traditional Sellers in Q1 2008 was $220,000, down only 3.9% in the last 12 months, while the Median Sales Price for the bank mediated listings was only $155,000, down a substantial 10.4% in the last 12 months. With the help of a little statistics background, it becomes clear to see why the Twin Cities Median Sales Price fell so far… the substantial increase of foreclosures and short sales selling through completely changed the product mix and ultimately the median price point.

If you refer to the report I just co-authored on Foreclosures & Short Sales on the MLS in the Twin Cities, you’ll see that if you exclude the “bank mediated” listings from the statistics, Median Sales Price is only down 3.9% over last year vs. the current MAAR-quoted composite Media Sales Price decline of 9.7%.

What does this all mean?  Traditional Sellers are getting far closer to what they would have received last year than the bank mediated properties, and since Traditional Sellers still make up nearly 3/4ths of the market, that means this market hasn’t fallen nearly as far as some think (and as some hope).

Short Sales & Foreclosures – Home Owner White Collar Crime?

In this difficult housing market, many recent home buyers are either behind in their payments or owe more money on the home than it is worth.

For some homeowners behind in their payments, a job loss or other financial calamity accounts for their inability to pay.  For other homeowners, it was that they were sold on a loan with an adjustable rate and often were not properly educated on the implications of the rate adjustment.

For people behind in their payments and for which there is simply no way they can make their payments and the lender will not negotiate a new payment plan, a foreclosure or short sale may be the only option they have.  For those people I am truly sorry and have nothing but empathy… even if they have little money into the house, they will have damaged credit for years to come and the shame of losing their home.

The second group of recent home buyers is different though.  These are the buyers that can afford to make their monthly payments but owe more than what the home is worth.  60 Minutes had a segment recently where there was a couple profiled that sounded like they can afford the payments on their adjustable ARM, but simply do not see any reason to do so:

But Matt and Stephanie Valdez say they knew exactly what they were doing when they bought a small two-bedroom for $355,000. They could afford the initial payments and planned to refinance the mortgage before the interest rate jumped to 11 percent. But they couldn’t do it because the value of the house had fallen below what they owed on the mortgage. They say they can afford the higher payments, but see no point in making them.

“The house keeps going down, payments keep going up. Where’s the logic in that? And how can we fix it? I mean, that’s what this whole thing’s about for us is how can we fix this? And if we can’t fix it, then what do we do?” Matt Valdez asks.

“Why pay a $3,200 payment on a 1200-square-foot home? It makes no sense,” Stephanie Valdez adds.

“That’s what you agreed to do when you bought the house,” Kroft points out.

“Fine. If the value is going up. But we’re not going anywhere. The price or the value is going down. It makes no sense because we will never be able to refinance and get a lower payment. There’s no way,” Stephanie Valdez replies.

“You’re saying, essentially, that you’re going to stop making payments on it? You’re just gonna let it go into foreclosure?” Kroft asks.

“You know, that’s the only advice we’ve gotten so far is walk away from the home. We don’t want to do that to our credit. Why can’t our mortgage company work with us?” she says.

Full article:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/25/60minutes/main3752515.shtml 

These buyers signed a contract and regardless of the situation, they say they can still make the payments.  Consequently, if they choose to stop making the payments simply because “it makes no sense” to follow through on the contract they agreed to, then I don’t see how that is any different from white-collar fraud or theft.  It certainly would be in the bank’s interest to work with them on a loan modification, but at the same time, they are not at fault for the buyer’s decision.

When circumstances dictate that a person cannot afford the obligations they have, bankruptcy, short sales and foreclosures are fair and viable options for them to get out of their trouble.  When a financially able person simply chooses to walk away because the deal doesn’t look good to them anymore, I don’t know how you can see that as anything other than stealing.  When the home sells for 10% or 20% less the next time around and the bank takes a $20,000 – $100,000 loss on the house, how is that any different than taking that money directly from the bank’s vault?

When a bank takes a loss on a home, it simply doesn’t erase profit from their balance sheet… they will raise prices on other customers in an atwww.t to maintain their profit margins.  Further, when a foreclosure or short sale home sells for a depressed price in a neighborhood, that sale will have a negative effect on the values of all the other homes around it, and that effect can linger for a year or more as buyers look at recent sales in the neighborhood to determine what they will offer on a home.

Banks are certainly not blameless in their role in this mortgage mess but they are also not the sole villain either.  In this difficult market, I believe many people have lost sight of personal responsibility and are shifting their problems onto the rest of us.

Just this week I had a reader contact me about his situation.  He had purchased last year when he was married and since then has become divorced.  When they purchased, they rolled their closing costs into the mortgage amount on the home and the neighborhood values have fallen approximately 10% since that time.  He wanted to know more about the options available to him.

Once I explained the options and the long-term consequences either way, he decided to dig in, get a renter or two, and hold out for a turnaround in the market.  Obviously not happy with the situation and the near-term outlook, he decided to take the responsible path, which is to hold to his obligations.  I was quite proud to read his decision and hope that most people, when faced with a similar situation, do the right thing as well.

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TwinCitiesRealEstateBlog.com is not a Multiple Listing Service MLS, nor does it offer MLS access.
This website is a service of Aaron Dickinson of Edina Realty, a broker Participant of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.